NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf37a57ab173b4f9fdb418dd311c29c7dc7df7892706a8124268b4f7eef1eb0f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Nuggets, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Hawks | 54c | 40,000$21,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,400 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Nuggets | 46c | 39,639$18,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,233.89 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nuggets | 49c | 12,732$6,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,189.78 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…21ebbacked Hawks | 56c | 8,931$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,931.42 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Hawks | 55c | 5,555$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.75 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 51c | 4,156$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.9 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…ed6cbacked Nuggets | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…982dbacked Hawks | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a0…42a3backed Hawks | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…6313backed Nuggets | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Nuggets | 51c | 2,080$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.8 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 45c | 1,448$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Nuggets | 46c | 1,132$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.77 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Nuggets | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 194 | 48.5%94 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Hawks | 51c | 840$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 53c | 769.55$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.65 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Nuggets | 48c | 768.13$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.7 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Hawks | 52c | 671.63$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.38 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Nuggets | 54c | 605$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.7 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked Nuggets | 48c | 512.5$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Nuggets | 50c | 400$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 48c | 235$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 47c | 112.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dd…9889backed Nuggets | 48c | 60.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Nuggets | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Nuggets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…1dd6backed Nuggets | 53c | 26.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. HawksNuggets won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Hawks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.