La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Oviedo vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5357d252f1b7619833b8f193c02fed4c78c37d17e94a07c5d19a409748405c23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 31c | 5,252$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.37 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 76c | 2,657$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.65 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 44c | 2,473$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.14 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf45…ea2cbacked Yes | 66c | 2,428$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 77c | 1,862$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.21 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…f8d4backed No | 71c | 1,422$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee6e…b859backed Yes | 29c | 1,420$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 49c | 1,179$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.17 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 1,119$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.82 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 31c | 520.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.91 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 68c | 512$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.57 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 29c | 444.06$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 48c | 358.38$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.57 | 746 | 57.4%428 W · 318 L | +22.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Yes | 56c | 291.09$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 29c | 98.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 425 | 57.9%246 W · 179 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 71c | 96.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed No | 57c | 87.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 50c | 83.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 70c | 72.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Yes | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 266 | 45.5%121 W · 145 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b68…0060backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed Yes | 30c | 66.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…df55backed No | 70c | 46.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821e…4e0ebacked Yes | 71c | 41.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed Yes | 30c | 33.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Yes | 75c | 22.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…7d48backed No | 70c | 16.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…88aabacked Yes | 75c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9c…a18fbacked No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Oviedo vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-23?No won
- Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-11-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.