MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5359791df488b5493f8e73e5e622dd3c4f8a3a5cf9751387f0bcfdc3b8b733f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 47c | 29,918$14,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,061.3 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 53c | 15,000$7,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,050 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 53c | 11,037$5,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,187.39 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 2,055$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.38 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 1,173$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.87 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 53c | 779$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.83 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 52c | 735.41$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.06 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 48c | 728.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 57c | 636.24$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.91 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 631.17$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 54c | 555$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 54c | 398.15$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 46c | 337.65$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 250.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 219.51$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 215$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 59c | 122$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 119.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 54c | 99.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 58c | 86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 46c | 44.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 38c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Over | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 67c | 22.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 68c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.