MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2d6f7f10c0a952b199b7ce01a5e541aa61b77fca3a39ee0948b5baf8ca58cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 0c | 9,837$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 1,085$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.05 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 581.04$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 473.74$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1884…b7a5backed Under | 45c | 331.89$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 577 | 58.6%338 W · 239 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 42c | 302.53$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.37 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 45c | 277$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.35 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 62c | 259.68$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 214.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 49c | 214.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 184.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 153.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 50c | 140.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 31c | 137.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 43c | 136.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 45c | 112$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 59c | 99.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 56c | 95.35$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 43c | 89.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 87.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 58c | 81.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 43c | 74.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 59.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 46c | 47.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 54c | 44.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 37.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 69c | 19.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.