La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x535b9a443581ef40d7f349579328c0c25ac6b3aded927fa2de017405192cd6dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 40c | 4,229$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528.64 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 34c | 2,288$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.16 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 1,340$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.15 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d8…1ccebacked Under | 62c | 1,332$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…7f10backed Under | 66c | 1,233$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…8620backed Under | 61c | 979.12$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed Under | 74c | 943.98$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…3c50backed Under | 62c | 854.85$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 71c | 757.67$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Under | 66c | 596.56$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 14c | 571.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.44 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 17c | 517.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.65 | 97 | 22.7%22 W · 75 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 436.89$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 8c | 359.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 65c | 324.31$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 124 | 70.2%87 W · 37 L | +30.3wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +70%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 13c | 308.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.99 | 175 | 62.9%110 W · 65 L | +32.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…aa42backed Under | 67c | 298.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 10c | 294$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 16c | 261.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.9 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…a37fbacked Under | 60c | 244.29$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 15c | 213.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.33 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under | 77c | 198.5$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 75c | 152.59$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.87 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 70c | 152.02$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 403 | 57.1%230 W · 173 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 19c | 151$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.31 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 186 | 53.8%100 W · 86 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…d1f3backed Under | 65c | 99.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 89.32$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 18c | 78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 77c | 76.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c0…4c07backed Under | 64c | 72.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Under | 79c | 69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 67.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…5234backed Under | 69c | 59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 36c | 52.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 25c | 45.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…3755backed Under | 78c | 44.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…050ebacked Under | 70c | 43.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 36c | 41.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 204 | 41.7%85 W · 119 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…3b71backed Over | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 40c | 36.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…4f5dbacked Under | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Under | 66c | 20.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: UD Almería (-2.5)CD Castellón won
- UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 0.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.