Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5378169b556f318910c95146865211ff5dc90cdc2de732777333b103e059ba09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 54c | 980$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc720…8f88backed Yes | 45c | 865$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.75 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 45c | 857.57$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.5 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 70c | 831.75$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.97 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 77c | 518.57$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.83 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b8…565dbacked Yes | 52c | 344.46$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 55c | 334.42$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.91 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 33c | 236.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 24c | 213.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…c077backed Yes | 60c | 210.55$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 44c | 174.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.07 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 43c | 159.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 46c | 158$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…e181backed Yes | 45c | 129.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 48c | 128.65$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 60c | 86.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 73c | 82.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 28c | 80.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 36c | 79.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 40c | 75.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 54c | 65.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 63.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab2…9791backed Yes | 33c | 61.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 53c | 59.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 51.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…6a86backed Yes | 78c | 45.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc492…01c7backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…ad70backed Yes | 50c | 43.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…eb65backed No | 59c | 42.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 44c | 32.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2871…844fbacked Yes | 54c | 27.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c48…a751backed No | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…88e1backed Yes | 78c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 19.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on January 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on January 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 52°F or higher on January 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on January 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on January 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on January 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.