NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53ff8dc55779077a83094f41d66231c6118b6f0ce1ace571c4d3675ea61f0042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Pistons | 56c | 2,321$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.43 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 44c | 2,023$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…ef6fbacked Bucks | 46c | 1,763$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 45c | 1,300$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pistons | 55c | 1,196$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.3 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Pistons | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…701fbacked Pistons | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bucks | 50c | 577.48$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.74 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Pistons | 56c | 571.43$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.43 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Pistons | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 44c | 507.79$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.43 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Pistons | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked Bucks | 46c | 265.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Pistons | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Pistons | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Bucks | 49c | 157$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Bucks | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Pistons | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Bucks | 46c | 72.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pistons | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Pistons | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa123…61a5backed Bucks | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d3…08bcbacked Bucks | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…31c0backed Pistons | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bucks | 48c | 35.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Pistons | 55c | 34.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Bucks | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Bucks | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bb…1918backed Pistons | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 52c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Bucks | 46c | 22.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…1974backed Pistons | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)this page
- Bucks vs. PistonsPistons won
- Bucks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Bucks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.