NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa745c2405d06544dfa50e9d2db1c6057195bd4e7748ed9039d093916ea0f297c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 49c | 8,904$4,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,363.17 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 6,519$3,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,213.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6caf…7ef6backed Under | 51c | 2,758$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Over | 49c | 2,418$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.15 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 51c | 1,449$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.97 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 52c | 1,321$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.83 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 981$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.69 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 55c | 914.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 904.72$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.5 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 54c | 851.72$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.36 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 51c | 617.65$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.65 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 50c | 514.15$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.08 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 502$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.1 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 47c | 466.74$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.87 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 54c | 405$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.7 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 46c | 405$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.7 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Over | 50c | 400$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 48c | 399.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 55c | 185.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 52c | 114$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…fbc2backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bb…1918backed Under | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 223.5this page
- Bucks vs. PistonsPistons won
- Bucks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Bucks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-12.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.