Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Sho Shimabukuro vs Alex Molcan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5405f684712682ae543752cbac5800db95110539119d0775069122ea55e4a5b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Molcanof Shimabukuro, Molcan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Shimabukuro | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 108 | 15.7%17 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Molcan | 47c | 1,500$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.78 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Molcan | 76c | 1,410$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.95 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Molcan | 80c | 881$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.85 | 440 | 38.4%169 W · 271 L | -27.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Shimabukuro | 55c | 800$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.7 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Shimabukuro | 29c | 758.08$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Molcan | 45c | 480$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Shimabukuro | 53c | 454.65$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.96 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Shimabukuro | 53c | 444$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Shimabukuro | 53c | 301.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.72 | 784 | 52.9%415 W · 369 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Shimabukuro | 35c | 263.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Shimabukuro | 32c | 248.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Shimabukuro | 53c | 248.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Shimabukuro | 53c | 236.65$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…7295backed Molcan | 79c | 218.31$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 186 | 63.4%118 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Shimabukuro | 53c | 208.41$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Molcan | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,161 | 44.3%514 W · 647 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…ba33backed Shimabukuro | 53c | 188.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Shimabukuro | 25c | 187.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Molcan | 46c | 151.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Molcan | 47c | 142$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shimabukuro | 58c | 130$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 4,474 | 51.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L | +133.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Shimabukuro | 55c | 129$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Shimabukuro | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Shimabukuro | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…72a4backed Shimabukuro | 29c | 98.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Shimabukuro | 53c | 89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Shimabukuro | 65c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shimabukuro | 31c | 76.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shimabukuro | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Molcan | 47c | 64.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Shimabukuro | 43c | 63.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Shimabukuro | 34c | 56.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Shimabukuro | 57c | 54.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Molcan | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Shimabukuro | 35c | 34.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 930 | 48.8%454 W · 476 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Shimabukuro | 47c | 33.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Molcan | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Molcan | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Molcan | 58c | 28.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 279 | 36.2%101 W · 178 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Molcan | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d8…1053backed Shimabukuro | 53c | 26.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Shimabukuro | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Shimabukuro | 53c | 22.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7426backed Shimabukuro | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 139 | 64.7%90 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe901…3139backed Molcan | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 238 | 32.4%77 W · 161 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.