Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between Atalanta and Real Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5443531efd4ed99bbd35a43cbc9cc6e6981318d5369bbc02de030e2bcc57cd30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 1,144$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.4 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 73c | 1,100$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Yes | 27c | 1,100$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d52…94c4backed No | 73c | 999.96$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 25c | 700$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 28c | 616.38$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 75c | 612.42$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Yes | 26c | 463.67$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 8c | 418.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…6628backed Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Yes | 27c | 176.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c67…dfa8backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 27c | 110.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…6b1abacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 72c | 79.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 73c | 78.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd449…450fbacked Yes | 22c | 56.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 433 | 33.5%145 W · 288 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb33…1fe7backed Yes | 38c | 40.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…2d19backed No | 74c | 27.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.37per pick | 40cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked No | 74c | 24.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Atalanta and Real Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will Atalanta beat Real Madrid?No won
- Will Real Madrid beat Atalanta?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.