TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Qingdao Eagles vs. Beijing Ducks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Beijing Ducksof Qingdao Eagles, Beijing Ducks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,963 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Qingdao Eagles39c5,743$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.3813046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Beijing Ducks63c3,742$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.7116828.6%48 W · 120 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Qingdao Eagles21c2,904$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.976116.4%10 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Beijing Ducks62c2,567$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.4628943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Qingdao Eagles46c2,299$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.9354251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Beijing Ducks49c2,263$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.563060%18 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Qingdao Eagles34c2,200$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.9724430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Beijing Ducks75c2,106$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.352846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc418…5e1ebacked Beijing Ducks64c2,081$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.631172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Qingdao Eagles46c2,070$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.43633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Qingdao Eagles52c2,041$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.275360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Qingdao Eagles27c2,004$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.054344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Qingdao Eagles32c1,807$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.5413220.5%27 W · 105 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f6d…49acbacked Qingdao Eagles27c1,550$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Beijing Ducks77c1,210$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.437052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Beijing Ducks49c1,156$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.314946.9%23 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Beijing Ducks71c1,056$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.648845.5%40 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Beijing Ducks67c1,003$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.15151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Beijing Ducks68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Beijing Ducks49c981.28$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.835642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Qingdao Eagles42c708.27$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.621827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick36cpaid+13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed Beijing Ducks61c574.75$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Qingdao Eagles42c542.39$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.2843543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Qingdao Eagles26c518.97$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9326935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Qingdao Eagles19c503.61$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.133735.1%13 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Qingdao Eagles34c499.98$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.991050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Beijing Ducks64c489.2$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.112259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Beijing Ducks49c436$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.2610947.7%52 W · 57 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Qingdao Eagles32c421.79$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.972356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Beijing Ducks65c418.95$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.355648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Qingdao Eagles51c408.94$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1421535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Beijing Ducks61c406.08$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.2736939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x165b…711cbacked Beijing Ducks55c403.48$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.523036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Beijing Ducks62c396.07$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.651250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Beijing Ducks64c366.9$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.083154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…8784backed Qingdao Eagles33c330.2$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Beijing Ducks62c321.74$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4134344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aae…16e6backed Beijing Ducks74c298.65$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.651060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked Beijing Ducks74c266.05$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.173161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Qingdao Eagles44c265.43$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8435234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98be…ce69backed Beijing Ducks50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Qingdao Eagles20c238$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.68936%32 W · 57 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Beijing Ducks70c230.69$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.281546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Qingdao Eagles24c229.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.233652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Qingdao Eagles34c224.43$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.453823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Beijing Ducks73c215.63$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.221145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Qingdao Eagles36c213.23$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.295152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ee…b517backed Qingdao Eagles44c204.87$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.033243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26a6…dedebacked Beijing Ducks48c203.84$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.151020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-61.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x665e…7291backed Qingdao Eagles50c201.76$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.881233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Qingdao Eagles32c197$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.066949.3%34 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Qingdao Eagles23c196.02$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6810926.6%29 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Beijing Ducks58c189.48$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Beijing Ducks63c158.63$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.441675%12 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+34.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3f1…c252backed Beijing Ducks62c144.95$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.537100%7 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+110.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a0e…5e62backed Beijing Ducks68c144.24$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.163100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Qingdao Eagles32c138.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2225517.6%45 W · 210 L-29.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Beijing Ducks75c136.73$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8514037.9%53 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x335e…f71abacked Qingdao Eagles31c135.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.69580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+59.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Beijing Ducks74c133.03$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.59977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+63.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Qingdao Eagles30c112.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.646119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x830c…439ebacked Beijing Ducks63c109.69$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Qingdao Eagles39c109.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.85628.6%16 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85a9…30bcbacked Qingdao Eagles36c98.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe727…f6e1backed Qingdao Eagles51c88.11$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.941136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Qingdao Eagles25c88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.332254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Beijing Ducks59c84.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.794452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Qingdao Eagles34c82.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.931353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Qingdao Eagles35c79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.366642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc16…a7c2backed Beijing Ducks74c78.75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.481546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a01…c0f7backed Beijing Ducks53c75.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.953100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Qingdao Eagles34c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Qingdao Eagles51c74.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.131838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…8263backed Qingdao Eagles47c72.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.863351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Beijing Ducks43c67.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.483737.8%14 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Qingdao Eagles30c63.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.161844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Beijing Ducks72c58.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.525666.1%37 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Beijing Ducks58c58.35$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3819748.2%95 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x104d…3330backed Beijing Ducks61c56.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.03580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Qingdao Eagles52c54.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.287944.3%35 W · 44 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43c7…d727backed Beijing Ducks68c50.86$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe941…a496backed Beijing Ducks68c49.32$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.01742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-41.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c04…2c55backed Beijing Ducks62c49.3$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.53756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Beijing Ducks49c47.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.971764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…899bbacked Qingdao Eagles29c47.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6320936.4%76 W · 133 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Beijing Ducks44c46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.766450%32 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1b…c69cbacked Beijing Ducks54c43.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354f…95f8backed Beijing Ducks73c40.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.844100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb27b…5d6ebacked Beijing Ducks51c38.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.652751.9%14 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0576…9d28backed Qingdao Eagles30c36.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Beijing Ducks78c35.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.923151.6%16 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf512…5198backed Beijing Ducks65c35.25$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.344374.4%32 W · 11 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc18…9b6ebacked Beijing Ducks74c34.74$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0c…231ebacked Qingdao Eagles37c31.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Beijing Ducks72c31.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.926142.6%26 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Qingdao Eagles34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.227338.1%104 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Qingdao Eagles44c29.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39dd…7af9backed Qingdao Eagles51c29.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.161450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed Beijing Ducks59c29.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.025565.5%36 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29d2…6429backed Beijing Ducks68c28.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.