Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x544ec3acaa9105933a653f3ebf54a0097e87ca54e2fca2dce2e989ffbc9d5f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 33c | 386.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 140.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 116$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 111.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 108$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 74c | 99.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 15c | 96.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 95.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 95.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 16c | 94.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 89.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 43c | 89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 81.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 77.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 34c | 75.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 74.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 14c | 71.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 57c | 70.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 64.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 64.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 18c | 61.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 32c | 59.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 30c | 58.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 50.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 34.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked No | 72c | 32.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa021…d5c9backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 27.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 62c | 24.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 24.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 59c | 22.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 19.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ba…16dcbacked No | 73c | 17.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 75cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 63c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.