TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,144 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7300…e52cbacked No3c534.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.112,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No23c364.82$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.361,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes42c305.39$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.954143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No25c230.1$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.853,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd7…b347backed No46c218.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No50c199.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5286847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No50c195.55$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0161760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes78c139.45$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5520662.1%128 W · 78 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c131.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No47c129.02$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.277,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No62c127.86$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.461,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes53c120.36$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.582,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ab…3c91backed No49c118.46$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.954327.9%12 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes36c115.34$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.322,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No47c112.82$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3179040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No42c107.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8865353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No45c107.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1914646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed No60c105$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4932041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes39c100.04$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.021,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No59c98.91$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5367158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed Yes43c98.43$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.237669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No19c92.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.852,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes53c91.6$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.612540%50 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes58c90.16$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.879,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No20c90$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.596,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes41c89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.761,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No56c86.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.841,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No27c86.21$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.132,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes50c77$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4645130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No36c71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.682,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes58c64.61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.986657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No37c59.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.217947.5%85 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes52c58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c56.2$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.746,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes59c56.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.142,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x521e…a47bbacked Yes54c55.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.25733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed No62c53.24$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1343842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes41c50.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5537835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.575,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1927756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa88f…1096backed Yes55c49.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.53557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c48.72$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.68,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed No62c48.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9329941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked Yes66c46.72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9411343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes58c44.85$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.851,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…3f63backed Yes52c44.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5913839.1%54 W · 84 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc4…3536backed Yes44c43.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.621040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No46c43.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No56c43.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.121,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No50c43.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.367,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9282…cf25backed No52c42.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.11957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcff…8528backed Yes37c41.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.716159%36 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes47c40.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.32,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes52c39.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No28c38.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes54c37.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0947935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes56c35.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9525058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes43c34.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9947538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb35…0988backed No50c34.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.16456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes53c34.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.185,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes53c34.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0252828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes39c31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9122454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a3b…256ebacked No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.823362.2%145 W · 88 L+33.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.248261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes48c28.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9628441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.961,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No49c27.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No44c27.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.011,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8c…e526backed Yes49c26.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.88727.6%24 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b9b…3351backed Yes49c25.06$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.781070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7d62…72cdbacked Yes49c24.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.381080%8 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No50c24.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.011,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes50c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.433139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes56c21.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.433,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b14…5115backed No52c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.814,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.721,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6353353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07c…6c36backed Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.83759.5%22 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.423463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No61c17.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No61c17.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7119662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes59c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9740739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.