Movies · resolved market
Will "Black to the Future" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54537326a7e55aacd130a8c1802b9ce0805b48bb05e620924925c5db45fde056
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 50c | 3,803$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.64 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 74c | 2,200$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 26c | 1,765$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked No | 29c | 1,375$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.04 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 75c | 1,269$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 77c | 1,185$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 27c | 796$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed Yes | 62c | 486.25$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 28c | 230$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…c681backed Yes | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…b97cbacked Yes | 74c | 134.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 15c | 107.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 31c | 57.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3319backed Yes | 55c | 52.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…4dd9backed Yes | 22c | 49.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 70c | 40.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Black to the Future" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?this page
- Will "Black to the Future" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4.25m?No won
- Will "Black to the Future" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.25m and 5m?No won
- Will "Black to the Future" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.