Us Politics · resolved market
Will President Trump sign 5 pieces of legislation into law in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54560cba1a1903b05c64d669ebea2be673c0cba483d1a9b4fa10d1f3897e221f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 77c | 299.57$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 18c | 193$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 18c | 191$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 107.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 65c | 83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 38c | 49.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 32.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…eb67backed No | 63c | 16.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will President Trump sign 5 pieces of legislation into law in April?this page
- Will President Trump sign 0 pieces of legislation into law in April?No won
- Will President Trump sign 1 piece of legislation into law in April?No won
- Will President Trump sign 3 pieces of legislation into law in April?No won
- Will President Trump sign 4 pieces of legislation into law in April?No won
- Will President Trump sign 6 pieces of legislation into law in April?Yes won
- Will President Trump sign 7 or more pieces of legislation into law in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.