Us Politics · resolved market
Will President Trump sign 4 pieces of legislation into law in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x980ab83922a555c306bb2e4fcefc7c30a0030e272f61da00d4f00a9db5afd93a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb384…cfbdbacked Yes | 50c | 1,991$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4c…fb98backed Yes | 50c | 1,991$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…685cbacked No | 50c | 1,991$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 70c | 273$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…1838backed Yes | 19c | 261.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 24c | 248.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 30c | 101$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Yes | 30c | 97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 77c | 52.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 66c | 47.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed Yes | 34c | 47.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 18.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will President Trump sign 4 pieces of legislation into law in April?this page
- Will President Trump sign 0 pieces of legislation into law in April?No won
- Will President Trump sign 1 piece of legislation into law in April?No won
- Will President Trump sign 3 pieces of legislation into law in April?No won
- Will President Trump sign 5 pieces of legislation into law in April?No won
- Will President Trump sign 6 pieces of legislation into law in April?Yes won
- Will President Trump sign 7 or more pieces of legislation into law in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.