Tennis · resolved market
Fery vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x546728cf7217671a8e01b76229717076335b2d0fc9948b7932f9b8091a2c5dc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 20c | 340$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 67c | 120.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…31bbbacked Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Over | 50c | 118.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…9d25backed Under | 52c | 102.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…a390backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b34…a646backed Under | 80c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 27c | 72.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 31c | 58.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 320 | 49.1%157 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0d65backed Under | 52c | 58.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Over | 48c | 40.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 1,883 | 44.8%843 W · 1,040 L | +36.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 30.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 4,253 | 45%1,912 W · 2,341 L | +20.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…7ab4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fery vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de MinaurAlex de Minaur won
- Fery vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Fery vs MinaurMinaur won
- Set 2 Winner: Fery vs MinaurMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5)Minaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.