Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on December 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x546e43762c8025449587b3f443944179dd7331c30a594ea018c709c4219816fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 61c | 1,062$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 4c | 529.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 8c | 523.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 32c | 467.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.35 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 19c | 384.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed Yes | 66c | 321.45$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 36c | 305.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…9beebacked No | 50c | 199.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 21c | 178.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 54c | 171.84$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed Yes | 71c | 165$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 33c | 130.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f80…c963backed No | 28c | 130.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 32c | 130$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 55c | 125.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 31c | 124.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 51c | 116$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 50c | 111.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 13c | 108.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 51c | 107.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 61c | 79.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 77.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 36c | 73.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…7f99backed No | 35c | 56.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…5de3backed Yes | 76c | 52.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked No | 21c | 51.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked No | 34c | 40.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…9514backed Yes | 69c | 36.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +222%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…47ebbacked Yes | 74c | 33.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9607…0f2cbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…4990backed No | 50c | 24.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 54c | 21.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…3c80backed Yes | 67c | 20.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on December 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on December 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on December 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.