Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ac45d42cee646def30c171938d5d24be25480da640c5dd8d8595b3a828245b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 16c | 807.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 46c | 593.58$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.58 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 31c | 444.41$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 54c | 370.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.05 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 56c | 357$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 346.75$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 35c | 316.57$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 281.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 15c | 247.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e1…1b93backed Yes | 80c | 214.33$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 195.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 51c | 194.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 15c | 187.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 27c | 173.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 156.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 32c | 155.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 30c | 149.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 50c | 148.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 142.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 79c | 139.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 132.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…674ebacked Yes | 31c | 120.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 118.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 35c | 108.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 106.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 79c | 102.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 41c | 101.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 101.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 28c | 98.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 97.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 35c | 88.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 88.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 49c | 88.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…c496backed Yes | 27c | 87.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 86.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 71c | 81.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 79.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 76.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 71c | 75.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 74.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 72.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 26c | 64.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 59.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 39c | 59.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 42c | 57.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 30c | 56.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 69c | 56.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 30c | 52.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 42c | 51.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 76c | 51.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 73c | 51.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 51.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 50.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 50.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 30c | 48.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 37c | 47.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 73c | 47.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 70c | 47.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 21c | 47.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 71c | 41.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 35c | 41.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 73c | 41.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 41.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 71c | 39.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 67c | 37.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 64c | 35.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 30c | 34.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b1…f521backed Yes | 39c | 32.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 48c | 31.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 68c | 30.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 37c | 30.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…7833backed No | 72c | 29.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x004d…ffa5backed No | 67c | 29.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 72c | 29.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 72c | 29.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 36c | 28.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 27.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 72c | 27.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 26.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 69c | 22.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…37a2backed No | 71c | 21.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 72c | 18.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…ed4abacked Yes | 77c | 16.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.