South American Leagues · resolved market
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54b0e1b520ff8ee21944cae593cf8dafc66156b194b342a8aaa15108d00a1ec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 24c | 2,453$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.7 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 76c | 1,454$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 26c | 1,427$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Over | 30c | 1,232$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.83 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 76c | 914.2$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.21 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…ab1bbacked Under | 69c | 649.99$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…7e93backed Under | 71c | 635$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 360.6$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 285.38$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 22c | 221.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 167$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 77c | 164.55$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 23c | 143.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 24c | 120.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Under | 68c | 95.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ac…16cdbacked Over | 25c | 81.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Over | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked Over | 22c | 72.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 31c | 52.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 75c | 37.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 34c | 36.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 33.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…63b6backed Under | 80c | 31.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 77cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 77c | 22.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 77c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5this page
- Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: Independiente Medellín (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.