MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ebe75b023271b9439490935590badc53131b05d924f308c2170f56b8cff8a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof San Diego Padres, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Houston Astros | 59c | 19,738$11,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,092.58 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 18,964$7,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,775.4 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 1,567$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.14 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 1,100$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 1,088$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Houston Astros | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Houston Astros | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 28c | 648.3$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.62 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Houston Astros | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 480.42$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 456.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 444.67$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.87 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Houston Astros | 70c | 221.28$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a6…25bcbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 154$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 117.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Houston Astros | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Houston Astros | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 41.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 30.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Houston Astros | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Houston Astros | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.