Bundesliga · resolved market
RB Leipzig vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ed660d8a34eb218f079a0d41a24ff8f2cb700c2aa858daf0672fbea44bfd50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 15c | 2,024$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.56 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 17c | 1,993$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.15 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 23c | 299.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Under | 15c | 235.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 24c | 208.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 202.53$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Under | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Under | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 15c | 178$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed Under | 24c | 161.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 77c | 141.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Under | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Over | 78c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 21c | 100.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…fca8backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 15c | 89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd167…4b25backed Under | 18c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 76c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…2ecabacked Over | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Over | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Over | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RB Leipzig vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5this page
- RB Leipzig vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RB Leipzig vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Over won
- RB Leipzig vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.