NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5502d8c1c55cb9f8e274a2a0dd47f9c75b880659d7c3a074c14820318d90f730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Senators, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 186.88$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 136$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 115$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Senators | 32c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 102$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Senators | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…0b37backed Senators | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 66c | 71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Senators | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Senators | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Senators | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Senators | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Senators | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Senators | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Senators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Senators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.