NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2900c193a50477bfb2e5154ba346cbac41d2dc707b6e15afb85e32b6fb80dac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Senators | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Maple Leafs | 30c | 163.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +171.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Senators | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Senators | 73c | 133$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Maple Leafs | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Senators | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Senators | 64c | 99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Senators | 74c | 96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Senators | 73c | 89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Senators | 74c | 87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 56.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Maple Leafs | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Maple Leafs | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 43.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Maple Leafs | 26c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Senators | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 265 | 47.5%126 W · 139 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Senators | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Senators | 72c | 27.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Senators | 72c | 25.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Senators | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Senators vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Senators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Senators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.