NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d47b002b79006b313f48cd46ca1dce12b4adee1ccaf391ef53dba2104dc017e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 6c | 1,755$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +7.1wins | +0.27per pick | 11cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x485e…fcb5backed Under | 4c | 574.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 22c | 337.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 295$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 42c | 205.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 8c | 199.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 44c | 186$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Over | 56c | 53.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 48c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2745…055ebacked Under | 35c | 41.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Over | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 44c | 30.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 22.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Senators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.