TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Senators vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maple Leafsof Senators, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,151,496
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,158,620

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,151,496 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,085 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Senators54c312,730$168,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168,874.288151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Maple Leafs46c275,785$127,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148,474.8867051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f6…e0debacked Maple Leafs46c202,782$93,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,649.251668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Senators48c97,350$46,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,977.711,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Senators53c46,955$24,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,886.374247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Senators53c46,701$24,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,751.6915953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Maple Leafs45c40,000$18,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,00038748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Maple Leafs46c35,379$16,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,948.8451452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Senators54c30,000$16,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,20019555.4%108 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Senators52c27,079$14,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,150.51,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Senators55c25,000$13,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,75042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs48c21,990$10,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,515.711,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Maple Leafs45c14,863$6,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,112.1679350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs47c14,358$6,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,609.651,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed Senators55c14,000$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,700933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-35.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Maple Leafs63c14,000$8,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,118.71771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+40.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cae…a00abacked Senators54c12,901$6,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,966.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Senators54c12,367$6,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,659.2293953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs49c11,210$5,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,725.412,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Senators52c8,203$4,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,231.931,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Maple Leafs45c6,991$3,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,845.0528652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Senators53c6,663$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50029651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Senators51c6,031$3,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,075.7325449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Senators55c6,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30013049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs48c5,732$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,987.941,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Senators0c5,664$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.767450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Senators41c5,575$2,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.9418840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Maple Leafs49c5,150$2,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,644.591,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Maple Leafs63c5,071$3,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.111050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Maple Leafs45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7506640.9%27 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Senators55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75025446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Maple Leafs45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.9831654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Senators51c4,900$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.164032.5%13 W · 27 L-8.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe548…a51abacked Senators55c4,617$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Maple Leafs46c4,600$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,48422946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Senators18c4,449$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.8129926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Maple Leafs47c4,251$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,253.033360.6%20 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Maple Leafs47c4,112$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.154047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Senators0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52504.8%12 W · 238 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf98c…bf06backed Maple Leafs48c3,869$1,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.691850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Maple Leafs64c3,769$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,356.8424654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Maple Leafs48c3,750$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,95050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Maple Leafs79c3,569$2,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.9138738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Senators55c3,520$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.661959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Maple Leafs47c3,387$1,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.214247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9397…ceb4backed Maple Leafs46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6202352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Maple Leafs46c3,000$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.991,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9e…0262backed Senators53c2,850$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Maple Leafs45c2,448$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.4564242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Senators54c2,387$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.0684953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed30…f821backed Maple Leafs63c2,265$1,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.04742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Maple Leafs45c2,200$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,21551044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Maple Leafs48c2,071$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.8331753.9%171 W · 146 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4dd…67c8backed Senators52c2,006$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.75944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Senators54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08014945%67 W · 82 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Senators54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0806555.4%36 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d1…4ebcbacked Maple Leafs49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0201080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+60.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Senators54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0808845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Senators1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Maple Leafs48c1,999$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.3311749.6%58 W · 59 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs49c1,927$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.942,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Senators55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007157.7%41 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Senators50c1,711$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.683652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8333…eb93backed Maple Leafs45c1,606$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.33351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs47c1,600$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85663249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Maple Leafs48c1,563$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.59846.9%46 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Senators56c1,549$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.198845.5%40 W · 48 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Senators54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81036038.6%139 W · 221 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Maple Leafs48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78013437.3%50 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Senators55c1,455$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80028152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d2f…2999backed Senators52c1,337$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x039a…8c4abacked Maple Leafs48c1,337$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.24580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+54%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84a3…8ad0backed Senators52c1,322$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.443748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc087…d9e4backed Maple Leafs48c1,322$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.443844.7%17 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc35a…128bbacked Senators52c1,320$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.43847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1a0…381fbacked Maple Leafs48c1,320$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.44355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6980…e417backed Senators52c1,314$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.283450%17 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c89…0acebacked Maple Leafs48c1,314$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.283135.5%11 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa173…b925backed Maple Leafs48c1,309$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf17…1f53backed Senators52c1,309$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.683933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d03…f21abacked Senators52c1,298$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8248…aee4backed Maple Leafs48c1,298$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.96475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs46c1,293$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.221,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c0…875abacked Senators52c1,292$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.843636.1%13 W · 23 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x43b7…c468backed Maple Leafs48c1,292$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0afb…b604backed Maple Leafs48c1,286$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.72475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b17…b9a6backed Senators52c1,286$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.724339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Senators54c1,272$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.0626955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff5…2c9dbacked Senators52c1,268$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.363737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6361…06a9backed Maple Leafs48c1,268$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.36475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbb…f493backed Senators52c1,264$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.283250%16 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc14…9a00backed Maple Leafs48c1,264$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.285048%24 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47a8…8c9abacked Senators52c1,263$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.763429.4%10 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7d5f…d77fbacked Maple Leafs48c1,263$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.764645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa262…0363backed Maple Leafs48c1,247$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.444744.7%21 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a21…7916backed Senators52c1,247$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.443132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca45…b5acbacked Maple Leafs48c1,229$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.084953.1%26 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67d8…f00bbacked Senators52c1,229$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.084639.1%18 W · 28 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd86…e947backed Senators52c1,228$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.563542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90d1…8fe7backed Maple Leafs48c1,228$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.563542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.