NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e43aec54fe7770f09c7ec8e81c1930837125614fd8290291680545d0801c6e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 55c | 1,718$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.84 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 45c | 1,263$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.65 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 41c | 512.87$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.59 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Under | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 19c | 486$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 45c | 481$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.26 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 54c | 413.04$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.04 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 47cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 53c | 231.08$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.47 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 230.21$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.47 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 44c | 185.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 54c | 78.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Over | 43c | 57.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…9efebacked Under | 55c | 54.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…0912backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Under | 57c | 44.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 44c | 34.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb72…10debacked Over | 63c | 25.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Senators vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.