Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alex Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x552644e6f26f2d8790459837cd10e05079f2fb53fb81dd615c58a9502a902eaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Rinderknech, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Michelsen | 50c | 2,020$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Rinderknech | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Michelsen | 41c | 940.44$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.75 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Michelsen | 41c | 719$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.1 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Rinderknech | 51c | 699.47$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.74 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Rinderknech | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Rinderknech | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…7188backed Michelsen | 51c | 507.02$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Rinderknech | 49c | 506.27$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.22 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Michelsen | 51c | 500$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Michelsen | 49c | 402.35$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.15 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Michelsen | 50c | 336.12$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Michelsen | 55c | 245.22$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.87 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michelsen | 49c | 237.79$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Rinderknech | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Rinderknech | 45c | 223$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Michelsen | 18c | 222.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…0684backed Rinderknech | 51c | 211.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Rinderknech | 51c | 201.14$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Michelsen | 62c | 159.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rinderknech | 63c | 137.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Rinderknech | 49c | 103.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rinderknech | 66c | 102.29$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Michelsen | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Rinderknech | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Michelsen | 54c | 100.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Michelsen | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…db3dbacked Michelsen | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Rinderknech | 44c | 56.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rinderknech | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Michelsen | 24c | 48.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Rinderknech | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rinderknech | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Michelsen | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Rinderknech | 48c | 36.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Michelsen | 50c | 36.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Michelsen | 49c | 34.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Michelsen | 55c | 31.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Michelsen | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Rinderknech | 75c | 29.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Rinderknech | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.