Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x553efc42fc0235f4077070786b288d404b3d41c3d4b54eb78d490ba084880f18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Team Yandex
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Yandex | 43c | 1,820$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.38 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Spirit | 53c | 594.89$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.39 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Team Yandex | 51c | 507.55$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.7 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Spirit | 49c | 454.06$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.81 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Spirit | 63c | 451.71$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.77 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563b…774bbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 451$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Yandex | 50c | 330$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Team Spirit | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Spirit | 80c | 299$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…f432backed Team Yandex | 20c | 259.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked Team Spirit | 49c | 207.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.03 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed Team Yandex | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Spirit | 48c | 195.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2d…77b4backed Team Yandex | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex | 20c | 142.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…eb6cbacked Team Spirit | 49c | 134.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…ae46backed Team Spirit | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…3432backed Team Spirit | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Yandex | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Team Yandex | 58c | 115.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb34…507bbacked Team Yandex | 46c | 114$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…a2b3backed Team Spirit | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Team Yandex | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Spirit | 50c | 95.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…76dcbacked Team Spirit | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aab…1536backed Team Spirit | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed Team Yandex | 44c | 87.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…94bfbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…6d97backed Team Yandex | 32c | 74.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070c…dbf5backed Team Yandex | 50c | 68.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10f9…5a03backed Team Spirit | 49c | 60.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Spirit | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Team Yandex | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…32bebacked Team Yandex | 58c | 58.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -11.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Team Yandex | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Team Spirit | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 149 | 65.8%98 W · 51 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Spirit | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Spirit | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Team Spirit | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Team Spirit | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Yandex | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Spirit | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked Team Spirit | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Spirit | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.