Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x553f866dbab179f597d5df713d07e1c753732746aa4c498307fe583c0820ac42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 136 | 13.2%18 W · 118 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 439.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,515 | 15.4%234 W · 1,281 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 278.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 1,182 | 38.2%452 W · 730 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 170.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 149.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 132.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 117$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 14c | 91.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 106 | 19.8%21 W · 85 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 29c | 86.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 85.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 78.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 75.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 70.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked Yes | 28c | 67.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 64.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 56c | 57.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 797 | 47.1%375 W · 422 L | -29.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 56.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 55.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 32c | 47.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 658 | 38.8%255 W · 403 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 69c | 45.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 27c | 40.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 72c | 38.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 37c | 33.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 33.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 24.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 77c | 23.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 75c | 22.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 66c | 15.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 13.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.