Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a77587ad4b6689c26ecd790b4c4a1f31308514d104b1a05c54419def294f602
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 46c | 6,137$2,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,317.78 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 591.5$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.77 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 476.13$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 270.85$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.51 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 49c | 268.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.54 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 250.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 989 | 52.3%517 W · 472 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 54c | 230$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 225.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.18 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 220$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 51c | 217.89$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 797 | 47.1%375 W · 422 L | -29.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 214$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 208.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 185.96$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 183.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 21c | 176.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 146.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 135.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 127.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 119.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 117$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 115.59$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 1,803 | 63.2%1,140 W · 663 L | -8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed Yes | 55c | 110.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 106.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 24c | 105.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 59c | 101.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…1a48backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 41c | 92.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 89.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 51c | 87.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 22c | 86.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 85.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 41c | 81.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 55c | 73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 185 | 42.2%78 W · 107 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 50c | 70.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 47c | 68.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 53c | 66.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 340 | 61.8%210 W · 130 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 47c | 61.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 43c | 59.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 58c | 59.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 212 | 52.8%112 W · 100 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 51c | 55.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 876 | 50.2%440 W · 436 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 613 | 46.7%286 W · 327 L | +41.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 65c | 47.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 46c | 47.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 41c | 46.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 67c | 44.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 65c | 44.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 575 | 54.3%312 W · 263 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 490 | 49%240 W · 250 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 48c | 41.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 38c | 37.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 37.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 35.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…5710backed Yes | 40c | 34.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 60c | 33.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 845 | 35.9%303 W · 542 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 39c | 32.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,182 | 38.2%452 W · 730 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 633 | 49.9%316 W · 317 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 31.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 916 | 55.9%512 W · 404 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…74acbacked Yes | 64c | 31.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…8a39backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 57c | 29.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 27.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 44c | 27.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 52c | 26.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 44c | 25.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 23.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 586 | 58%340 W · 246 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.