Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5541c27d0bfaea20fbcc82f51746409acdcc36bdc8e08474b1ae749d2ff42ee8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amaru Gamingof Team Nemesis, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Amaru Gaming | 48c | 1,800$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.8 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Team Nemesis | 60c | 1,270$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.72 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6acc…e6eebacked Team Nemesis | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Amaru Gaming | 33c | 715$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.7 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Amaru Gaming | 47c | 683.36$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.9 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 679.65$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.58 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Nemesis | 49c | 640.19$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Amaru Gaming | 35c | 599.39$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.33 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Team Nemesis | 6c | 554.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Amaru Gaming | 49c | 452.81$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.62 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 380$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Team Nemesis | 80c | 271.61$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.29 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Nemesis | 71c | 267.68$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.05 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Amaru Gaming | 29c | 180$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…1210backed Amaru Gaming | 43c | 106.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Amaru Gaming | 43c | 83.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa59a…71eebacked Team Nemesis | 75c | 69.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Amaru Gaming | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Amaru Gaming | 58c | 30.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Team Nemesis | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3)Amaru Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.