Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0445a1c1f24e2563b385266236054a9764e9f5199a3e09e2206be9dd0b84ce81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Nemesis | 59c | 2,925$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.13 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Amaru Gaming | 43c | 2,707$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.36 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Team Nemesis | 74c | 2,513$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.61 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Team Nemesis | 58c | 2,157$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.12 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Amaru Gaming | 39c | 1,814$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.26 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Team Nemesis | 76c | 1,609$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.16 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Amaru Gaming | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Amaru Gaming | 36c | 1,454$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.64 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Amaru Gaming | 38c | 1,120$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.66 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Amaru Gaming | 29c | 1,097$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.45 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked Amaru Gaming | 3c | 900$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Team Nemesis | 65c | 697.28$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.28 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Amaru Gaming | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…b232backed Team Nemesis | 66c | 500$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Amaru Gaming | 32c | 443.94$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…c379backed Team Nemesis | 71c | 398.51$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Amaru Gaming | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Nemesis | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Amaru Gaming | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…e46dbacked Amaru Gaming | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…7754backed Team Nemesis | 65c | 151$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Amaru Gaming | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…2852backed Amaru Gaming | 33c | 148.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…104ebacked Amaru Gaming | 48c | 99.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Amaru Gaming | 38c | 89.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Amaru Gaming | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Team Nemesis | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Team Nemesis | 64c | 25.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3)Amaru Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 WinnerAmaru Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.