Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x556f48740205c818d0e1ba213089b8bb9ba2e581085f86aa77146e301494f607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 24c | 792.12$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.84 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 40c | 358.7$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.29 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 191$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 150.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 132$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 78c | 120.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…a098backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 118.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 45c | 99.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 45c | 86.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 80c | 79.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 54c | 62.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 58.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 42c | 52.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 50.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 43.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 39.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 32.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 26.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 49c | 21.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 3?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on July 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.