La Liga · resolved market
Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5578a5854b5d2704836949131bdcf65a27a071b7cf9839d99be43121c62a7c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 7,204$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.71 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 19c | 596.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 80c | 147$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 425 | 57.9%246 W · 179 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 80c | 111$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 80c | 83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…4f76backed Over | 20c | 50.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 80c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 196 | 46.4%91 W · 105 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Under | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5Under won
- Real Oviedo vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Real Oviedo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.