College Football · resolved market
Navy vs. Cincinnati: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5582ceaac19e89755ef9353cba8d2cdc8d1be6145ae9e73180886866e6f68b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navyof Navy, Cincinnati
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9af…7807backed Cincinnati | 28c | 2,996$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Navy | 65c | 898.46$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Navy | 57c | 880.61$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.66 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Navy | 57c | 851.64$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.64 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Navy | 66c | 820.8$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.52 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Cincinnati | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…3579backed Cincinnati | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Navy | 72c | 251.51$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Navy | 67c | 57.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Navy | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Navy | 69c | 38.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Cincinnati | 31c | 38.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Navy vs. Cincinnati: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Navy vs. CincinnatiNavy won
- Navy vs. Cincinnati: O/U 55.5Under won
- Navy vs. Cincinnati: O/U 56.5Under won
- Navy vs. Cincinnati: O/U 57.5Under won
- Navy vs. Cincinnati: O/U 58.5Under won
- O/U 54.5Under won
- Spread: Navy (-7.5)Navy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.