College Football · resolved market
Navy vs. Cincinnati: O/U 58.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa945c934c1b6cbf13c40142dab581b3708c7353453fe0e0537870b660f44ea3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 2c | 11,931$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Over | 7c | 9,818$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.26 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 50c | 6,025$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 4,229$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.57 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 53c | 1,116$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.31 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 45c | 468$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.28 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…69d3backed Under | 53c | 428$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…fe32backed Under | 57c | 300.85$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 7c | 182$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 51c | 117.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Navy vs. Cincinnati: O/U 58.5this page
- Navy vs. CincinnatiNavy won
- Navy vs. Cincinnati: 1H MoneylineNavy won
- Navy vs. Cincinnati: O/U 55.5Under won
- Navy vs. Cincinnati: O/U 56.5Under won
- Navy vs. Cincinnati: O/U 57.5Under won
- O/U 54.5Under won
- Spread: Navy (-7.5)Navy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.