NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5587a25dbe78d1809c5b4fbbbfa32d001c566321e6a3c0058fc66cb91cfeed7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Bulls, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 46c | 9,510$4,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,421.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd041…7b26backed Hornets | 53c | 4,717$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Hornets | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bulls | 46c | 2,963$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.88 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls | 47c | 2,480$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.42 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bulls | 49c | 2,406$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.53 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed Bulls | 48c | 2,081$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…4976backed Bulls | 47c | 1,590$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…77e4backed Hornets | 53c | 1,590$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Hornets | 52c | 1,546$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.15 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bulls | 46c | 1,522$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.12 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Hornets | 53c | 1,479$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.37 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 51c | 1,324$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bulls | 47c | 1,170$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.9 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bulls | 47c | 1,032$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.19 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Bulls | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 784 | 45.8%359 W · 425 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Bulls | 46c | 1,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…c0d6backed Hornets | 54c | 932.27$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.17 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Bulls | 49c | 857.85$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.35 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Bulls | 47c | 847.77$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.45 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Hornets | 51c | 828$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.72 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 51c | 807.33$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.52 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 57c | 738.09$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bulls | 45c | 676.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.65 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Hornets | 52c | 625$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Hornets | 51c | 523$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.27 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bulls | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…16e3backed Bulls | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Hornets | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hornets | 53c | 286.19$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.54 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…d6c9backed Bulls | 40c | 243.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bulls | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 47c | 193.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Bulls | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Bulls | 46c | 167.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Hornets | 55c | 105.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcc…bb85backed Hornets | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Hornets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Bulls | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bulls | 46c | 67.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…6574backed Hornets | 54c | 67.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Bulls | 46c | 55.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Hornets | 51c | 44.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Bulls | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Hornets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8865…d72fbacked Bulls | 47c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Hornets | 53c | 27.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Hornets | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)this page
- Bulls vs. HornetsHornets won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 246.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 247.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 248.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 249.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.