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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hornetsof Bulls, Hornets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$582,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$583,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $582,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82a1…e03abacked Hornets50c496,547$250,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246,547.085952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bulls50c200,000$100,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,0001,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Bulls50c183,250$91,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,624.826352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bulls47c68,484$32,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,353.265,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad2…004ebacked Hornets50c28,248$14,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,151.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bulls50c15,968$7,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,9842,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Hornets49c13,956$6,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,116.4114549%71 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bulls50c12,180$6,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,034.831,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls50c11,811$5,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,930.679,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bulls51c11,076$5,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,648.7669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hornets50c10,097$5,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,006.288,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bulls52c8,900$4,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6281,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Hornets49c8,305$4,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,235.5589050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls51c6,668$3,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,387.563,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Bulls53c6,600$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4982147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bulls51c6,500$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2901,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bulls51c3,480$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.9892753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb98…0d41backed Hornets50c3,110$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5551030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bulls48c2,312$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.892,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9827…e5ffbacked Bulls51c2,265$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.153050%15 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bulls50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Bulls53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0607640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd88e…ef1bbacked Bulls53c1,729$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.242853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0585…5fa1backed Bulls53c1,698$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls49c1,569$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.996,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bulls51c1,330$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.412,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bulls50c1,139$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.795049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Bulls48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Bulls52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52027051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bulls50c1,000$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.332,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Bulls50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007447.3%35 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Bulls50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013148.1%63 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Hornets49c611.95$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.12,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Bulls53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Bulls48c504.72$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.361,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Bulls50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25017941.9%75 W · 104 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071e…0d11backed Bulls53c443.4$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Bulls51c390.11$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9613748.9%67 W · 70 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Bulls50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010735.5%38 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Bulls51c299.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15310246.1%47 W · 55 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Hornets48c299.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15645647.1%215 W · 241 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Hornets49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bulls51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036649.5%181 W · 185 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Bulls44c168$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9235447.7%169 W · 185 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Bulls51c159.29$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8162347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Bulls53c157$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2118357.4%105 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e77…4505backed Bulls52c142$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.842568%17 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Hornets62c130.57$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0412156.2%68 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets48c120.93$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.881,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Bulls50c109$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.562351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Bulls53c103.77$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5512048.3%58 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Hornets51c100.9$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.913938.8%54 W · 85 L-14.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Bulls50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040853.7%219 W · 189 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Bulls51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5154951.9%285 W · 264 L-2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Bulls53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535856.9%33 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked Bulls49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4937357.4%214 W · 159 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Hornets65c99.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3528929.4%85 W · 204 L-13.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Hornets49c99.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9965855.6%366 W · 292 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Bulls51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025351%129 W · 124 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Bulls51c98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9880148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Bulls49c97.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4825642.6%109 W · 147 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hornets49c96.31$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.122,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Bulls53c84.91$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4519756.3%111 W · 86 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Bulls39c71.87$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.021,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Hornets49c58.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7360834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Bulls51c54.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2890560.8%550 W · 355 L-2.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Hornets50c54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2724446.7%114 W · 130 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bulls48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2480744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d8…1552backed Hornets50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f1…c325backed Bulls52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88149.4%40 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Bulls51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…1389backed Bulls53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Bulls51c33.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1716253.1%86 W · 76 L-0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb261…f3a0backed Bulls53c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.961233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Bulls52c28.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522342.2%94 W · 129 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Bulls51c27.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1419543.1%84 W · 111 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Hornets53c27.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9132743.4%142 W · 185 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Bulls50c25.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.762744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3739…db78backed Bulls53c25.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Hornets48c20.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9252240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bulls49c20.79$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.143,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.