Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55b413937c9f0313bf157cb2e6f4a04df31f1f143439a186a9059b6a05785148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,247 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 1c | 2,573$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…bf31backed Yes | 67c | 1,190$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 24c | 1,019$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.39 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 35c | 909.27$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.33 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 699.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe262…4097backed No | 52c | 679.37$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 14c | 506.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 4c | 455.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 36c | 435.7$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.35 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 3c | 396.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 381.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 70c | 358.15$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 37c | 303.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 37c | 271.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.53 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 264.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.77 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 30c | 244.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 47c | 234.87$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.58 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 204.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 24c | 162.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 137.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 120.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 119.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…49e4backed Yes | 34c | 112$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 19c | 104.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 72c | 104.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…0533backed Yes | 27c | 97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 89.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 76.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 18c | 74.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…67e7backed Yes | 14c | 72.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Yes | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Yes | 20c | 70.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 24c | 70.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 67.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 28c | 67.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 56.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 45c | 55.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 37c | 53.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 67c | 44.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6a…3fc8backed No | 66c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 64c | 40.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 32c | 36.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 74c | 33.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…113ebacked No | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…9323backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 70c | 28.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…2b85backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2e…0690backed No | 66c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 24.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 63c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 59c | 21.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…3c9ebacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked No | 79c | 18.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…9d73backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or higher on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.