Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55d2c41cbe452c7abb71df86b19153317cb3a0ac6b69bf91c18be9515a584dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Flame Teamof Hive, Flame Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Hive | 18c | 6,861$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.29 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Flame Team | 66c | 4,644$3,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.56 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Hive | 25c | 4,319$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.35 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Hive | 37c | 1,805$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.24 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Hive | 7c | 1,700$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Flame Team | 71c | 1,262$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.03 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Hive | 37c | 983.03$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.72 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked Hive | 35c | 799.98$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Hive | 35c | 700$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Flame Team | 64c | 612.78$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.03 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Hive | 19c | 534.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Hive | 37c | 503.1$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.15 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…1e8abacked Hive | 37c | 499.97$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.3 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…7442backed Hive | 37c | 450$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…8661backed Hive | 11c | 320.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 159 | 40.9%65 W · 94 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Flame Team | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Flame Team | 60c | 214$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Hive | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Flame Team | 74c | 184.11$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Flame Team | 61c | 140.37$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Hive | 21c | 133$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Hive | 21c | 133$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Hive | 21c | 133$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Flame Team | 74c | 130.02$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Hive | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked Hive | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…af4dbacked Hive | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Flame Team | 66c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Hive | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec9…1873backed Flame Team | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Hive | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed Hive | 35c | 85.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Flame Team | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Hive | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Hive | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Flame Team | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd1…ed4bbacked Hive | 40c | 59.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Flame Team | 75c | 43.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked Flame Team | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Flame Team | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Flame Team | 66c | 29.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Flame Team | 63c | 29.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Flame Team | 65c | 28.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Flame Team | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…755fbacked Flame Team | 61c | 22.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…cb46backed Flame Team | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsFlame Team won
- Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 2 WinnerHive won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.