TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flame Teamof Hive, Flame Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…8ff2backed Flame Team50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00047646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Flame Team53c3,734$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.6579859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Hive44c3,423$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.861,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Hive50c2,450$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.0248057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Hive41c2,140$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.2145352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Hive49c1,699$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.554246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Hive37c1,646$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.452,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Hive44c1,523$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.9736547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Hive1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%0 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Hive36c1,206$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.5350353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Flame Team64c1,173$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.1815144.4%67 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Hive1c1,146$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.468035%28 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Flame Team58c1,128$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.5748053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Hive44c1,077$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.7793546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Flame Team61c868.13$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.5795342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Hive33c800$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26434442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Flame Team56c738.04$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.0835960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cde…96e2backed Hive50c727.65$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.832748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Hive35c722.3$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.511,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Flame Team60c705.97$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.397964.6%51 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Flame Team64c699.99$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.681,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Flame Team60c683.02$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.861,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Hive31c645.98$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3871342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked Flame Team54c619.98$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.1910653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Hive50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30014343.4%62 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Flame Team55c599.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba01…1a89backed Flame Team45c575.22$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.225244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Hive46c557.89$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.291553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked Hive50c530.8$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.43455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Hive38c501.33$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1886544.6%29 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Hive50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25028145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Flame Team66c500$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17258356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Flame Team55c444$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.810961.5%67 W · 42 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Flame Team61c416.19$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.831947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Hive50c411.66$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.8314655.5%81 W · 65 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Flame Team58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16833867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41a0…87e7backed Flame Team53c388.94$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.0210933%36 W · 73 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Hive38c379.22$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14471143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked Flame Team45c377.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.96744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Flame Team54c370.74$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.7446049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7dfd…b845backed Flame Team51c349.99$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.497656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ec9…1873backed Hive35c344.52$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2519839.4%78 W · 120 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9705…7442backed Hive38c309.11$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.123528.6%10 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Flame Team50c300$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.196245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Hive55c300$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16554058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0f…9f36backed Flame Team70c287.8$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Hive38c283.38$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6874549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Hive38c277.71$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8931251.3%160 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Flame Team56c254.9$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9566545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Flame Team58c244.85$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.091952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Hive45c241.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.231,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Flame Team49c231.4$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.971,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36f…53d0backed Flame Team75c215.62$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2720949.8%104 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e63…9e38backed Flame Team63c205.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2234561.2%211 W · 134 L+17.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Flame Team45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11061449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Hive50c198$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9926147.9%125 W · 136 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x023d…23acbacked Hive13c196.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Hive44c181.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.821,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d08…5d9fbacked Hive49c180$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.16845.6%31 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed Hive14c155.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.311668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2ad…a700backed Flame Team63c150$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.53951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Flame Team65c149.47$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9121769.1%150 W · 67 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed Hive46c147.34$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Hive28c146.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3717737.9%67 W · 110 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Hive38c146$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4625351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Flame Team53c145$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9532756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Hive35c142.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503333.3%11 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Hive38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5091356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e99…2229backed Hive34c129.04$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.788736.8%32 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Hive47c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5631052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Hive52c119.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.051,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…bb2dbacked Hive12c116.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa6ad…3575backed Flame Team67c110.06$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Flame Team59c103.94$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.171,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked Hive34c102.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.999322.6%21 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa781…8745backed Hive34c102.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.654650%23 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed Flame Team59c101.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6914030.7%43 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Flame Team62c101.58$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.611746.2%54 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5f…6ee5backed Flame Team63c101.56$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.584944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed Flame Team60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4029550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Flame Team52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.517340.5%70 W · 103 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed Hive40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015940.9%65 W · 94 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Hive50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5051544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a53…71a3backed Flame Team69c97.74$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7418562.7%116 W · 69 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Hive50c94.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4325349.4%125 W · 128 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Flame Team63c92.6$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2626445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Hive31c86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6630250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Flame Team69c84.5$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.951364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Flame Team68c80$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4481345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Hive38c78.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8112646%58 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Flame Team30c75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7595841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2503…bb1cbacked Hive46c73.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.781369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee22…7054backed Hive30c72.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.514621.7%10 W · 36 L-7.6wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-55%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Hive50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3514856.8%84 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a83…0be8backed Hive45c69.06$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.035545.5%25 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed Flame Team59c67.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.279239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Flame Team67c56.63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8278516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Flame Team59c56.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.344149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Flame Team59c54.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5529466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed Hive46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.