Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07582f61e58c5cf53920bf2e9c65bb7cca097d25d1ce410055f7f25944b7051a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hiveof Hive, Flame Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Flame Team | 49c | 1,400$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.02 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Flame Team | 25c | 1,261$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.28 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Hive | 70c | 1,184$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.18 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Flame Team | 55c | 905.04$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Hive | 70c | 815.07$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.32 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Hive | 71c | 714.2$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.92 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Hive | 37c | 612.28$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.11 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Hive | 37c | 593.27$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.84 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…7442backed Hive | 32c | 559.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.01 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Flame Team | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…2f5ebacked Flame Team | 52c | 460.5$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.18 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Flame Team | 21c | 398.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Hive | 29c | 212.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.63 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…8661backed Flame Team | 27c | 200.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 159 | 40.9%65 W · 94 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Hive | 50c | 179.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Flame Team | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Hive | 59c | 134.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Flame Team | 32c | 119.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Flame Team | 66c | 110$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Hive | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Flame Team | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Hive | 47c | 80.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Flame Team | 44c | 66.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Hive | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Flame Team | 26c | 59.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked Hive | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…6d22backed Hive | 70c | 37.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Flame Team | 63c | 26.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…c2d7backed Flame Team | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9195backed Flame Team | 66c | 18.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed Hive | 72c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 217 | 69.1%150 W · 67 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…7337backed Flame Team | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsFlame Team won
- Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 WinnerFlame Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.