Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55e9dde8976e3e6adff38a7db966e44f23a4f337f6b254cdb965dc4977c59c5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 4,671$3,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.37 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 30c | 2,830$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 42c | 898.9$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 69c | 332.26$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 23c | 331.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 36c | 327.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 68c | 307.21$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 306.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 23c | 302.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2628…757bbacked Over | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 69c | 292.36$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.63 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 287.37$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 66c | 274.94$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 69c | 249.52$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 27c | 185.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Under | 69c | 184.71$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 10c | 152.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.34 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +31.0wins | +0.24per pick | 35cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 69c | 150.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 23c | 139.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed Over | 22c | 122.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Over | 27c | 111.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 69.5%130 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Over | 12c | 109.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 23c | 108.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 31c | 92.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 31c | 90.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 387 | 45%174 W · 213 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8a…9806backed Under | 79c | 88.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 34c | 81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 637 | 45.4%289 W · 348 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…c27abacked Over | 30c | 73.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Under | 71c | 70.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 35cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 60.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Under | 80c | 55.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 81 | 63%51 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 70c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…2d13backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +111%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 481 | 47.8%230 W · 251 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 39c | 40.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x717b…2ae6backed Under | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed Under | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 70c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 215 | 65.1%140 W · 75 L | +16.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…53f1backed Under | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 79c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5this page
- Mexico vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
- Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Belgium won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.