Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4c5624bfa95233d6b8eff997bc5de8528dd2e44d116c6b72ef6a54895dc8dac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 2,740$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.5 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 22c | 1,086$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Over | 79c | 1,008$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.47 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Over | 69c | 816.75$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.28 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +11.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 71c | 661.67$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.97 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 22c | 499.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 418.82$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 80c | 259.56$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9579…44d4backed Over | 79c | 251.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 23c | 232.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 161.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 78c | 151.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 78c | 151.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 68c | 130.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 72c | 92.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 158 | 59.5%94 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 70c | 81.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 77c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Over | 77c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 78c | 79.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Over | 78c | 79.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab4…e981backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 23c | 62.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccb…6e97backed Over | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 481 | 47.8%230 W · 251 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 49.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…de25backed Over | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 78c | 31.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 117 | 75.2%88 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…5d27backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…df6cbacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Over | 72c | 25.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed Over | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 111 | 74.8%83 W · 28 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5this page
- Mexico vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Under won
- Mexico vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Mexico won
- Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Belgium won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.