TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Pittsburgh Pirates, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros53c959.65$507 inWon+$452.411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates44c483.57$213 inLost-$213.34,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates43c433.52$188 inLost-$187.688,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Houston Astros56c361.96$203 inWon+$159.2689053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros56c230.22$129 inWon+$101.36,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates45c222.22$100 inLost-$1001,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates54c177.68$97 inLost-$96.528,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros50c160.54$81 inWon+$79.636,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac15…75a4backed Pittsburgh Pirates45c111.11$50 inLost-$506051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates44c100$44 inLost-$4446854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates44c100$44 inLost-$4472154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates41c100$41 inLost-$4168942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates36c89.98$32 inLost-$32.421149.3%104 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Houston Astros21c71.43$15 inWon+$56.4354651.3%280 W · 266 L+29.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates40c55$22 inLost-$221,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates44c50$22 inLost-$221,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Houston Astros28c39.77$11 inWon+$28.661,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Houston Astros54c39.13$21 inWon+$1824150.6%122 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Houston Astros56c38$21 inWon+$16.7255643.9%244 W · 312 L-38.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c29.09$16 inLost-$1627646.7%129 W · 147 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Houston Astros57c24.56$14 inWon+$10.5689950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates45c23.62$11 inLost-$10.6359749.9%298 W · 299 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Houston Astros57c22.84$13 inWon+$9.7635341.1%145 W · 208 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates52c19.93$10 inLost-$10.4412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates67c17.64$12 inLost-$11.92,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.