MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88dfa2fe5eb83d949c763625b0ec501f88040f310873fbd8333bf8e130aca1e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 48c | 99,719$47,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,843.57 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 52c | 64,813$33,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,110.46 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 52c | 18,540$9,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,898.99 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 7,292$3,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,508.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 3,400$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 2,463$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.42 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 14c | 2,263$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 1,663$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 638.73$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 52c | 360$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 329.45$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.84 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 52c | 258$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 52c | 251.67$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.8 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 53c | 201.32$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 201.05$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…accbbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 59c | 170.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…c130backed Under | 16c | 151.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 63c | 97.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 53c | 96.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 93.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 16c | 87.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 13c | 78.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee9…3143backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 52c | 30.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 51c | 26.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 52c | 22.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Under | 52c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 20.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 14.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 15.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.