Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5610f29d8e60a4c258fe23b6478df6d36a1b6754b45073fd670e9ce68f769c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 351.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 44c | 216.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 174$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 155.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 151.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 129.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 36c | 124.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 120.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 119.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 47c | 107.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 101.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 97.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 15c | 94.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 57c | 87.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 80.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 75.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 66.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 62.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 44c | 51.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 43.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 54c | 41.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 40.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 54c | 37.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 47c | 37.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 41c | 36.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed Yes | 43c | 32.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 32.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed Yes | 49c | 32.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 54c | 31.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 53c | 31.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 28.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 27.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 25.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39eb…c75fbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 22.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 74c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.