Fifa International · resolved market
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5611779ca5f8b2322da614468b2200deac12303526d758b2b4514e6767efa660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 2c | 4,695$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 21c | 2,948$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.65 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 79c | 868$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.68 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 3c | 683.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 7c | 357.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 40.6%65 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 4c | 269.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 21c | 242.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ab…6c7bbacked Over | 5c | 197.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 257 | 27.2%70 W · 187 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 79c | 177.87$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Under | 78c | 148$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 184 | 35.3%65 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 21c | 131.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 21c | 117.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 451 | 20.6%93 W · 358 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 79c | 112.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 79c | 112$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 78c | 58.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 79c | 24.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…33bdbacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5this page
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 0.5Over won
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bulgaria (-1.5)Montenegro won
- Spread: Bulgaria (-2.5)Montenegro won
- Spread: Montenegro (-1.5)Bulgaria won
- Spread: Montenegro (-2.5)Bulgaria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.