Fifa International · resolved market
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6eba6b642f3f80b6f62dd1f5f2af71af5d4906a0358834f11ed9502b19b9b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 25c | 1,602$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.89 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 10c | 1,100$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 17c | 866.24$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.26 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…442bbacked Over | 60c | 838.88$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.88 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 9c | 640.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 6c | 569.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 11c | 510.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 488.21$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 13c | 372.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 311.33$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.37 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 15c | 261.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…a952backed Under | 18c | 211.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Over | 70c | 202.86$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 82 | 74.4%61 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…e6d7backed Over | 58c | 164.82$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357c…7dfebacked Under | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 73c | 141.59$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…90ebbacked Under | 17c | 139.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd3…ca6dbacked Over | 61c | 121.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 80c | 113.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 224 | 66.1%148 W · 76 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…0758backed Over | 56c | 106.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52aa…e5dabacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…736ebacked Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Under | 27c | 53.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 160 | 40.6%65 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…24f3backed Over | 60c | 42.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 158 | 45.6%72 W · 86 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 45c | 34.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 271 | 54.6%148 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…bb2bbacked Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 0.5this page
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Bulgaria (-1.5)Montenegro won
- Spread: Bulgaria (-2.5)Montenegro won
- Spread: Montenegro (-1.5)Bulgaria won
- Spread: Montenegro (-2.5)Bulgaria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.